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October 31, 2014 by John Duncan

How a Market Correction Plays Out In the Media

There is a good reason we continue to highlight the benefits of discipline, keeping your emotions in check, not reacting to market movements and ignoring emotive news headlines.

It’s because history has shown the investors who can’t be disciplined, put aside market movements and media headlines, will inevitably suffer lower than market returns.

The recent correction has provided a great opportunity to illustrate exactly how the media responds throughout two months of volatile market movements. Importantly, we can demonstrate these media reactions while the correction is still fresh in all of our minds.

Below is a chart of the ASX All Ordinaries from the beginning of September until close of trade on October 30. Click on chart for full size.

2014 asx correction

Overlayed are actual headlines from the Australian Financial Review with arrows indicating when they were published during the correction. We’ve observed these headlines as being an accurate barometer of how the media reported the correction throughout September and October 2014.

At the beginning of September the ASX was near its high point for the year and the equity headlines were positive, with a “Flood of Money Tipped to Keep Shares Going”. From there, the market had a swift decline and halfway through September the AFR noted a “Storm Alert for Investors”.

As the declines continued readers are told of “Fears of More Losses After ASX Wipeout” along with a story detailing past market horrors in October. This one is written every year because the 1929 and 1987 crashes happened during October. Strange that the other 80 odd Octobers that were relatively uneventful haven’t rendered this story useless by now, but journalists need to write stories so they can eat.

Early October and AFR asks “Is This the Last Gasp of the Bull”, while local investment experts begin musing on further bad times ahead – at this stage the market was down over 7%. The market declined another 2% before hitting bottom for the correction. Notably, this was the exact point the AFR capitulated and started talking about bailing out, writing “Knowing When to Use Your Parachute”.

The market moved off the bottom and posted consecutive positive days for over a week. During this time AFR reminded us “It’s Volatile, but Don’t Panic”. A headline that would have been more useful a month earlier after the market had dived and they talked of a “Storm Alert for Investors”.

As the market continued to pull back losses, the reminders about buying opportunities appeared. Yet there were significantly better buying opportunities when they told us to use our parachutes! With the market going up again AFR clearly felt safer about suggesting it was time to buy.

When the market shot back into positive territory for the year, AFR decided to roll out their hindsight machine and smugly suggest “Volatility Is Not a New Thing, Nor Necessarily a Bad Thing”. Again, something that would have been more useful before or during the correction, not when it appeared safely behind us.

We understand market declines can be emotionally trying because as the market falls, so does the equity portion of your portfolio, but here we can see how the media can exacerbate those feelings of nervousness by acting as some form of authority on what’s ahead.

As the headlines on the chart show, they have absolutely no idea what is happening. They’re in reaction mode and their predictions and advice are late, wrong and ignorant.

When the market was at peak they predicted it would continue. After the market fell for half a month they started the panic headlines. When the falls continued, the panic headlines turned to doom with a reminder of past crashes.

As the market bottomed out, they gave advice on jumping. When the market moved upwards for over a week, they then reminded us not to panic. As the market continued to move upward they told us about the bargains we should buy and reminded us to be brave!

Finally, with the market back in positive territory, and after all their emotion charged headlines, they brazenly tell us what just happened isn’t new, nor a bad thing!

Little wonder why today’s newspapers are lining bird cages tomorrow.

This represents general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, we recommend you consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.

Filed Under: Investment

September 12, 2014 by John Duncan

Iron Ore Decline Shows the Danger of Being Undiversified

If you haven’t heard, Australia’s mining boom appears to be on the wane. While some commodities appear to be holding up, Australia’s largest mining export, iron ore, has spent the year on a downward slide with the spot price declining over 30%. Such declines bring sharply into focus the budgets of governments, the bottom lines of mining companies and the fortunes of undiversified investors.

Take Western Australia’s Key Budget Assumptions. The 2014-15 WA budget estimate was for an average iron ore spot price of US $122.70. The forward estimate for 2015-16 was for $120.10. For 2016-17 it was $117.60 and for 2017-18 it was an average spot price of $115.

As of writing the iron ore spot price had fallen below US $85. And the decline from over US $120 at the beginning of the year has already mothballed mining projects across the country.

In Tasmania, Shree Minerals started up their Nelson Bay mine in late 2013 and despite talk of 30 years of production and 150 jobs; mining activity had halted by mid-2014. There seemed to be ongoing conjecture regarding their costs; a Shree presentation suggested AUD $81 per tonne, but they stopped mining when the spot price slipped below US $100 per tonne.

Northern Territory iron ore miner, Western Desert Resources suffered an even more disastrous outcome with the administrators called in this month. Macquarie Bank clearly saw the writing on the wall for iron ore prices and wouldn’t extend Western Desert Resources’ $80 million dollar debt facility. WDR had been experiencing problems with its loading facilities.

There were some high profile shareholders and directors scalped in this debacle. Pokies billionaire Bruce Mathieson, former Coles Myer chairman Rick Allert, Billabong co-founder Scott Perrin and former Woolworths CEO Roger Corbett, among the notables. Another reminder that big names involved in a company aren’t actually a reliable indicator of success.

The most interesting story came from Macquarie’s research arm. Back in January, Macquarie Private Wealth analysts put an “outperform” recommendation on Western Desert Resources with a price target of $1.05. At the time it was trading at 71 cents and Macquarie analysts offered the following:

Our estimates suggest the company should generate sufficient free cash flow to repay the $80m debt facility with Macquarie Bank within 12 months.

And less than nine months later Macquarie pulled the pin on that debt facility. Though Macquarie Private Research wasn’t alone with their bad call. Foster Stockbroking and Commonwealth Bank Equities saw similar big things for Western Desert Resources.

Chalk up another big loss for share pickers and analysts!

The strange thing was the analysts’ blindness to what was potentially coming in the iron ore market – the thing they’re paid to know about! Not only had the higher iron ore prices been prompting junior miners like Western Desert Resources and Shree to jump in the game, the majors like BHP, Rio Tinto and Brazil’s Vale had forecast they would massively increase their production.

Take BHP’s production report for the year ended 30 June 2012. BHP’s iron ore production stood at just over 159 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). By the year ended 30 June 2014 it had swelled to 203 mtpa with the expectation of 245 mtpa in 2015 and potential growth to 270 mtpa in the future.

Similarly, Rio was producing 230 mtpa in 2012, but had expanded to 290 mtpa in 2014. Their end goal is 360 mtpa for 2015. There were similar production ramp-ups coming from Andrew Forest’s Fortescue – up to 150 mtpa and the start of Gina Rinehart’s privately held Roy Hill project at 55 mtpa. Looking at a cost comparison of ASX listed iron ore companies might give an indication as to why BHP and Rio were enthusiastically increasing production.

iobe

$70 iron ore isn’t a great concern for Rio or BHP with their economies of scale, but a massive supply deluge could wipe out the majority of their listed competition. Not that any of this was given coverage in the establishment media over the past few years – nor from investment analysts who continued to have optimistic buy ratings on smaller iron ore miners.

This isn’t meant to be research on mining companies or the sector as a whole, but it is meant to be an indicator of how hard it is for an investor to successfully invest in individual companies or sectors. There are an immeasurable number of moving parts and variables that go into tracking the fortunes of one share.

Try being appropriately informed and abreast of the risks on 5-10 shares!

Especially when the information peddled by the media and investment analysts (the information you rely on) appears woefully ignorant until it’s too late. You might notice the media has now discovered the iron ore price has gone down and the reasons why. Subsequently, there are now wall to wall stories with experts and pundits telling us what we should expect next.

The same experts and pundits who’d previously told us to expect something completely different. Take Sydney Morning Herald economics editor, Ross Gittins, and his quotes from 2009 and 2012 that encapsulate the “she’ll be right” message he’s delivered his readers on mining over the past few years:

2009: That’s the point that’s slowly dawning: the resources boom is coming back and has decades to run. It will involve further huge expansion of our mining industry and huge growth in the volume of our mineral and energy exports, either at prices roughly the same as they are now or, quite possibly, higher.

2012: For a start, it’s a bit soon  to be kissing the boom goodbye. Spending on the building of new mines and liquefied gas plants is expected to grow  strongly for another year before it starts to fall back. Even then, it will stay way above what we normally see for several more years.

Yet last month Gittins levelled with his audience, questioning the value of the boom and timing his backflip perfectly as iron ore looked to fall below $90.

So the chances of your mine being completed in time to enjoy the super-high prices aren’t great – the more so because it’s essentially a self-defeating process: the more firms join the race and the harder they try to be among the first to complete, the sooner supply catches up with demand and prices start falling.

Just another reminder to ignore the forecasts of journalists and media pundits. And if iron ore makes a recovery what commentary should we expect from Gittins then?

As for the iron ore companies listed above (excluding BHP and Rio Tinto) their share prices have all declined a minimum of 30% this calendar year. Rio Tinto is down 10% and BHP a more modest 5.5%.

Meanwhile, the ASX All Ordinaries is up nearly 5%. Listed property is pushing over 15%. Fixed interest is up just under 5% and international shares have returned under 0.5%.

Iron ore is an interesting sector, but if even “the experts” can’t get it right why should anyone else invest their time when a diversified portfolio combining the above asset classes has provided reliable returns over long time frames?

 

This represents general information only. Before making any financial or investment decisions, we recommend you consult a financial planner to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs.

Filed Under: Investment, Uncategorized

February 11, 2014 by John Duncan

The Wolf of Wall Street Never Goes Away

The Wolf of Wall Street has been released in Australia and unlike most financial films it has garnered a great deal of attention.

Most of this is to do with its excess and the cartoonish nature of the film, also the fact it breaks a world record for the use of the F-word on celluloid!

Think Goodfellas, just set on Wall Street and without all the murders.

But is there anything to be learned as an investor? Plenty, but most of it is featured in the first hour before the film turns farcical.

We begin as the film’s subject, Jordan Belfort, has his introduction to stockbroking at a major Wall Street brokerage firm.

His ideals of making money for his clients and his employer are shot down by lunch time, as he’s told, “the name of the game, moving the money from the client’s pockets to your pocket”.

Not that this should be a surprise as an academic study called “Inside the Black Box of Sell-Side Financial Analysts” found over 50% of brokers rated retail clients as “not important at all” to their employer.

After the crash of 1987 Belfort was unemployed and took a job pushing penny dreadful shares to unsuspecting investors.

The sales techniques Belfort learnt on Wall Street made him a star as he convinced investors all over the country to buy unheard of companies based on concocted stories about their potential.

It’s here you get to see those shonky sales pitches that inevitably form the basis for every investment scam or scheme that was ever perpetrated.

And while they might be shonky, they can often be skillfully executed which makes them more dangerous for the unsuspecting.

Be it shares, real estate, trading currencies, computer programs or tax dodges, there’s always a wolf willing to sell their fabulous wealth making secrets.

Yet there’s only one true secret to building wealth – it doesn’t come fast or easy.

Filed Under: General

January 9, 2014 by John Duncan

Quick Guide to Personal Finance

In my experience, financial success is gained through two key actions that we all have the ability to leverage. The two keys to financial success is hard work and sound decision making. Over time if we consistently make unwise decisions, we will find ourselves in a situation that is difficult to recover from.

Just like other things in life, achieving financial success is more about hard work and making the right choices rather than circumstances outside of our control. Making savvy Personal Finance decisions starts with understanding why we make bad financial decisions in the first place and making a conscious effort to change the way we handle our money.

None of us are perfect as we are all human and are guided through life by a mix of ideals, morals, instincts and emotions. These factors can have a large influence on the financial decisions we make everyday. Some help us make good decisions and others not so much.

Savvy financial decision making begins with understanding that emotions and other elements of the human experience can impair your ability to make good financial decisions. The following list of savvy financial decision examples can help you improve your financial situation and avoid making poor financial decisions in the first place.

 

Making Better Financial Decisions

 

Create a Financial Plan – You know my first piece of advice will always be to  create a financial plan. A plan will automatically help you increase your financial decision making savvy by showing you the impacts of the decisions you make on a daily basis.

Difference Between Needs and Wants – Far too often we buy the things we do not need. When we spend money to buy frivolous items or overpay for things we do need, we are throwing away the opportunity to let our savings and investments grow at a faster rate. Take the time to explore the concept of needs and wants, let your conclusions guide your future financial decisions.

Don’t Max Out Your Mortgage – In the past, many of us have bought as much house as the bank would let us. We let the lenders and mortgage companies tell us what we could afford. This decision put many of us in a rough financial situation that we are still working through. So if you are exploring the opportunity to buy a house, don’t max out your mortgage.

Automate Your Budget – Taking the emotion out of budgeting and spending less is as easy as opening a bank account. When separating your discretionary and non-discretionary expenses into two bank accounts you will make it easier to save money by removing the temptation to buy the things you don’t really need.

Invest a Little Each Pay Cheque – Consistent investing is the best long-term strategy for making your money work for you. Investing 5-10% of every pay cheque is a great way to build a solid nest egg and easily increase your net-worth.

Don’t Ignore Insurance – One large bill, from a car accident for example, can wreak havoc on your financial plan and severely limit your chances of ever being financially independent. Ensure that your insurance covers you from any large unavoidable bills in the future. I know paying for insurance is not on the top of your to do list, however you will thank me if anything ever goes wrong.

Filed Under: Budget, Insurance, Investment

December 20, 2013 by John Duncan

Rear-view To Previous Predictions

It’s that time of year when we get to hear an avalanche of financial predictions for the year ahead – mostly because people are on holidays, but the media still needs to fill space in the silly season.

The television stations and newspaper quote the analysts with their forecasts about what may or may not happen.

So it’s always an interesting exercise to peak in rear-view mirror and see what they said way back in December of last year.

We can start off with Hugh Giddy, senior portfolio manager at Investors Mutual, who wasn’t so giddy about 2013.

According to Mr Giddy, the sale of a 1954 painting by Mark Rothko for $75 million late in 2012 was a sign we were getting ahead of ourselves.

He feared 2013 might be a return to the bad old days, where credit markets froze and shares plunged – this based on some rich guy buying a painting that looked like a 1920’s football jumper.

Chief market analyst at City Index, Peter Esho thought it would be a decent year for mining, highlighting coal stocks for a bounce after a woeful 2012.

Hew Hope, our largest listed coal miner led the way down with a 20% decline for the year (so far) and the results from other coal companies only got worse from there.

The Australian Financial Review told us 2012 couldn’t be repeated, “posing dilemmas for investors wondering how to invest in 2013”.

Of course most investors without an investment strategy or time machine would be left wondering how to invest in 2013, 2014 and 2015 and beyond.

For the record (at the time of writing) the ASX was up around 9% this year and the Dow Jones was up around 20%.

Like every other new year, we don’t know what is in store – that’s why we should have an investment strategy tuned to our risk tolerance and a healthy emphasis on diversification.

The gurus don’t know any more than the rest of us and if they did, why would they tell us?

Everyone have a Merry Christmas!

Filed Under: General

November 19, 2013 by John Duncan

What questions can you ask a financial adviser to help ensure you get advice that suits your interests and not theirs?

 

There are some great checklists available to help you choose a financial adviser, especially if you have no idea where to start.  But, most focus on basic questions such as experience, professional membership and the services they offer.

While these are helpful as a starting point, they don’t get to the heart of what determines the quality of the advice and service your financial adviser provides.

I think there are a few additional questions you can ask to help ensure you get great advice and support.


Q1
.   How many clients do you manage on an ongoing basis?

Why?

So you can check your adviser has time for you.

If you are one of 400 clients, your financial adviser probably has less than half a day a year to allocate to you, once weekends and the need to bring in new clients is taken into account.  Before you pay for any ongoing service, make sure you are happy with the amount of time your financial adviser is likely to have for you.  Then think about what you’re paying (and what you’re receiving) for the amount of time allocated to you.

 

Q2.   With what other businesses are you, or your company, associated?

Why?

Finding out if your financial adviser has a relationship with another financial services business can identify a possible bias towards a recommendation that will pay them additional money, and may not suit your best interests.

Currently, there is a focus on holding direct property within a self-managed superannuation fund.  Financial advisers aren’t generally authorised to recommend specific properties, but some may refer you to an associated business in which they have an interest.  This business might establish the super fund or identify appropriate properties to buy.

In many cases, this type of referral will be done transparently and there’ll be a compelling benefit to you for dealing with those parties.  But it is important for you to understand who will benefit financially from that referral and whose interests are being given priority – you need to be satisfied that any recommendation is in your best interests.

Also see Question 4 below about referral arrangements.


Q3.
   Who owns the license?

Why? 

Few financial advisers have their own license and the majority act as representatives of a licensee that provides the support they need and authorises them to provide advice.  Many of these licensees are owned by financial product manufacturers, superannuation trustees, banks, insurers and fund managers.  The advice provided by their financial advisers tends to be weighted towards the products and services provided by the Licensee or companies in the same group.

So while you may still get good advice, you are far more likely to get advice involving that group’s products.  And you are less likely to be told to dispose of their products or be alerted to a better product or strategy offered by a competitor.

For example, the adviser employed by your superannuation fund is unlikely to recommend a fund other than their own.  In contrast, a non-aligned financial adviser is less likely to be influenced by association and will often have access to a wider range of options.

Ownership or association with a financial institution doesn’t necessarily mean that your advice will be bad, but you do need to recognise the conflict of interest this relationship creates.  That way you can determine whether the relationship is likely to influence the advice you receive.

If you are dealing with a financial adviser from a bank, see the comment about bonuses in Question 5 below.


Q4.   
What referral arrangements do you have with other professionals and what fees are you paid for referring to these people?

Why?

You should check what your adviser is paid if they recommend strategies that involve other services they don’t provide directly.  To put it another way, have you been referred to a third party because it’s in your interest or because the adviser will financially benefit from making the referral?

For example, traditional mortgage brokers (who don’t refund trailing commissions) often pay financial advisers who refer clients a percentage of the commission they receive.  This provides a compelling reason for the adviser to refer clients to a particular broker.

In particular, be wary if your financial adviser recommends you speak with a specific property developer.  Even if you specifically sought a referral to a property adviser, always check what your financial adviser is paid and take that into account when deciding if this is the best possible referral available.

The self-managed super fund and property packages, mentioned in Question 2 above, can pay thousands to a referring financial adviser.

 

Q5.   How are you paid?

Why?

If your adviser is paid predominantly from commission, you may get advice that is biased towards products that pay greater commission than others.  This bias can sometimes be removed if your adviser caps their commission, or rebates or reduces the commission they may receive on products such as insurance.

If your financial adviser is paid a salary, ask how any bonuses are worked out.  Also ask when bonuses are determined so you understand at which stage in the adviser’s bonus cycle you are receiving your advice.  You should also check if your adviser’s pay varies depending on which products are recommended.

 

While many financial advisers won’t be used to being asked these specific questions, make sure you choose someone who appreciates why you’re asking and who takes the time to answer each one.

Professional advisers won’t hesitate to address your questions transparently and ensure the advice they provide to you is plainly in your best interests.  If they can’t clearly and easily respond, then that might indicate they are not the best adviser for you. 

Filed Under: General

October 29, 2013 by John Duncan

Insurance Protection: A Necessary Evil?

Most Australians are familiar with the need to protect assets such as their home and car with the right insurance, but what about protecting your most important asset?

Many people may see their home as their most valuable asset, but in reality the most valuable and important asset for most people is their ability to earn an income.

Consider a 30 year old earning $65,000 per year. If they lost the ability to work, they would lose over $2.2 million in future earnings. That doesn’t take into account pay increases due to promotions or inflation, which could easily double or triple this figure.

Unless you live in a very valuable home and have a very small income, it is most likely that your ability to earn an income will be your most valuable asset.

Each day many Australian workers lose their ability to earn an income. This is generally due to major illness and well as accidents. But it’s not just major incidents you need to worry about. Even just a few months or a few years can have a major financial impact on you and your family.

Protecting your income

Just as you insure your home and your car, you need to consider insuring your income. An income protection policy will replace up to 75% of your income in the event that you cannot work for a period of time. This period of time will depend on the policy options you choose, but for most Australians this period – known as the waiting period – covers thirty days.

The funds from your income protection policy can be used to continue paying your mortgage or rent, along with keeping food on the table and covering all other costs and expenses. Without insurance or any other form of income, this generally isn’t possible.

 What about sick leave or a disability pension?

Sick leave is designed to cover only short term absences from work. Many Australians will only have a few weeks of sick leave available, and even in extreme cases it is unlikely that anyone would have enough sick leave to cover the rest of their working life.

Some people may see Centrelink as their safety net, but the reality is that a disability pension will not meet the needs of most Australians. If you have a mortgage to pay and a family to support, you may find that a disability pension falls well short of your real income needs.

Worker’s compensation is another form of safety net; however this only covers incidents that are work related. If you suffer an illness or are injured away from work, you will not receive anything in the way of worker’s compensation.

 Why is income protection so important?

If you were to suffer an illness or injury that leaves you unable to work ever again, or even just for a few months or a few years, the impact on you and your family can be financially devastating. It’s also an unfortunate fact that financial problems can lead into other problems.

By having the right income protection in place you can ensure that any disruptions to your income that occur due to illness or injury will not have a major negative impact on you and your family’s way of life.

 Getting Protection 

It can be surprising how much income protection quotes vary between insurance companies. We’ve partnered with some of Australia’s leading insurance providers in order to offer our client the best value. Our expertise enables us to select the option that best suits your needs and your budget.

Filed Under: General

October 25, 2013 by John Duncan

True Financial | 2013 Third Quarter Review

Economic Overview

The dominant theme in the global economy during the September quarter continued to be the prospect of the US Federal Reserve’s tapering of its stimulus program. With US economic signals still mixed, ‘The Fed’ surprised markets in September by postponing its monthly $US85 billion bond buying program.

The Fed expressed it was disappointed with the speed of improvement in the job market and downgraded its economic growth forecasts.

The Eurozone emerged from a two-year recession, yet its banking system remained weak. While in the UK, The Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts for the rest of the year.

GDPGrowth

China appeared to be emerging from its slowdown, with improvements in retail, industrial output and exports. India, however, found its currency at record lows as inflation soared and growth hit a 10-year low.

Australia grew at an annual pace of around 2.5% and unemployment rose to a 4-year high of 5.8%. Mining investment showed signs of peaking, consumer spending remained soft, yet interest rate cuts were beginning to be felt in the housing sector.

 


Market Overview

The benefits of international diversification were highlighted in the September quarter with divergent performances by Australian, developed and emerging equity markets.

Having lagged the world in the previous quarter, Australia recorded its best quarterly performance in four years. The gain of over 10% doubled that of developed markets broadly and tripled the return from emerging markets.

MarketReturns

The Australian market also took encouragement from early indications of a lift in domestic demand as the RBA’s rate cuts and lower Australian dollar fed through. This news boosted sectors linked to the economic cycle, like consumer discretionary and industrials. In contrast, the less defensive mood left sectors like healthcare, utilities and REITs lagging.

In Europe, the easing of Eurozone concerns helped fuel strong equity gains by Spain and Italy, while over in the US the market hit record highs after the Federal Reserve decided not to taper its bond buying program.

Emerging markets again slipped behind their developed counterparts, this reflected the ongoing belief of reduced capital flows if the Federal Reserve had tapered its bond buying. There were divergences though; while India and Indonesia underperformed, Korea and Russia had solid gains.

Gold continued its volatile run, racing to an almost yearly high in late August, before erasing virtually all of those gains as it plunged during September.

In fixed interest, term and credit premiums narrowed, again as a result of the Fed’s change on tapering. Longer dated bonds outperformed shorter dated, while corporate debt beat government debt.

Randomreturns

The randomness of returns chart remained random. Once again it reveals no discernible pattern over the previous three years of quarterly returns, showing there’s no better choice than diversification. After a poor June quarter Australian small companies pulled themselves off the canvas this quarter to lead the pack, followed by the Australian large cap sector. Global equities showed more modest returns after a strong June quarter, while Global REITs (the only negative asset class this quarter) finally slipped into the red with a 2.12% loss after seven consecutive quarters of growth.

 


 

Investment Strategy Recognised

We’ve long strived to find the best investment options available. This means ignoring fads and focussing on rigorous research. Currently, much of the investment strategy we implement comes with the benefit of consistent historical data and decades of academic backing.

So it gave us great pleasure recently to see one of the pioneers of that academic research, Eugene Fama, awarded the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Fama’s research is the reason we emphasise the futility of picking stocks and making predictions. It’s also the reason we encourage investment discipline over guessing what the market will do next.

EugeneFama

“Fama’s research at the end of the 1960s and the beginning of the 1970s showed how incredibly difficult it is to beat the market, and how incredibly difficult it is to predict how share prices will develop in a day’s or a week’s time,” said Peter Englund, professor in banking at the Stockholm School of Economics and secretary of the committee that awards the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. “That shows that there is no point for the common person to get involved in share analysis. It’s much better to invest in a broadly composed portfolio of shares.”

 


 

The Australian University of Property Spruiking

We’ve previously warned property spruikers are back and unregulated as ever, so we thought it was time to find out how qualified those property ‘advisers’ actually are with a little quiz:

1. To become a property investment adviser, what educational qualifications are required?

  • Diploma in Financial Services
  • Diploma in Real Estate
  • Bachelor of Business

Answer: none of the above.

You can advise someone on buying a million dollar property, yet you are not obligated to have any educational qualifications.

2. The compulsory continuing professional development requirements for a property investment adviser are:

  • Attendance at the national conference (15 hours)
  • Equivalent of 20 hours which can include attendance at seminars, conferences, guest speaking
  • Equivalent of 30 hours which must include attendance at the national conference.

Answer: none of the above.

Why would you have to do any ongoing training or development to keep up your skills if there was no minimum training or education requirements when you first started in the job?

3. The licensing requirements to become a property investment adviser include:

  • Police check
  • Minimum entry educational qualifications
  • Endorsement from two current property investment advisers
  • All of the above

Answer: none of the above.

You would think that someone who is advising you on making one of the biggest decisions in your life would be obligated to be licensed. Well, you thought wrong.

4. The regulatory body that oversees the property investment advice industry is:

  • Real Estate Institute of Australia
  • The  Financial Advisers Commission
  • Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC)
  • A and C

Answer: none of the above.

You would hope that a large and powerful organisation such as Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) would be keeping an eye on investment advisers who are involved in some of the most important and expensive life decisions people will make. Unfortunately this is not the case. “Why?” I hear you ask.

The simple answer is real property is not considered a “financial product” under the Corporations Act. Anyone can give advice on real property and is not obligated to abide by the Corporations Act nor do they come under the scrutiny of ASIC.

Source: theconversation.com/au

 


She’ll be right, mate!

Finally, an interesting comparison of central bankers and possibly cultures. As debate again began to rage over the prospect of low interest rates fuelling a property bubble in Australia, the RBA’s Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis said the following:

“I think there are a lot of people, the minute housing prices start to pick up they say, ‘Oh my goodness, we’ll all be rooned.’ The minute housing prices start to pick up they imagine it’s a bubble.”

In contrast, the German Central Bank sounded a note of caution in its monthly report after an 8.25% rise in German property prices over the past three years, saying:

“Housing prices in German cities have been rising so strongly since 2010 that a possible overvaluation cannot be ruled out.”

And to give the statements a little context, according to The Economist:

Australian property prices, 46% overvalued against rents and 24% overvalued against incomes.

German property prices, 15% under-priced against rents and 18% under-priced against incomes.

OZvGDR

Filed Under: General

October 22, 2013 by John Duncan

The Bank of Mum and Dad

The reason we think young adults could benefit from financial advice at the best (worst) of times…

When you’ve helped people with their money over a long period of time you tend to notice when financial trends emerge.

While most are insignificant, some are interesting enough to have you asking colleagues if they’re witnessing similar things.

Lately it seems the Bank of Mum and Dad is assessing a few more loan applications than usual.

The economy is very different depending on which part of Australia you’re in, so these applications certainly aren’t all hard luck stories.

Merely the good income being earned has found an equally good spending and debt appetite to swallow it – the apple fell a long way from the frugal tree.

So what do you do, as the Bank of Mum and Dad, when you’re confronted with a loan request from one of your adult children?

Weigh up your own financial position first – if it has any material impact on your financial position and requires a significant action like liquidating assets or taking on loans yourself, I’d forget it.

Weighing up the circumstances surrounding the loan are important, you need to be able to get to the bottom of the financial situation your adult child is in.

If they’re not in a financial mess, a small amount to cover an unforseen circumstance or take a career opportunity may be a low risk proposition provided there’s a plan to repay.

If they’re coming to you because their existing bank has decided they’re already overleveraged then you’ve got a big red flag.

A bank not lending suggests they see any extra debt as a high risk situation, it marks you as the lender of last resort and that’s a dangerous situation to be in.

If you know your adult child shouldn’t be struggling financially, but they are, declining may be the best option.

It may force them to actually evaluate their financial position and see the need for a budget overhaul – something that won’t come about by giving them another loan.

Book a free consultation with an experienced financial planner who can assist you in getting back on track now!

07 31692570 or
admin@truefinancial.com.au

Filed Under: General

October 14, 2013 by John Duncan

Drowning in debt? Stop ’emotional spending’ and implement a strategy that works for you!

You probably know a few women who you would call “shopaholics“.

These are the women who always let a great sale, or a shiny set of new shoes get the best of them. Sometimes they spend more money than they should and probably have a stack of credit cards that they struggle to keep up with back home.

Living in a culture that looks up to glitzy celebrities and values consumerism, it is easy to fall into the trap that our worth as men directly correlates with our ability to purchase shiny things.

Moreover, we all have a competitive nature that drives us to want to one-up our peers, whether it is with the newest technology, the shiniest car or only drinking top shelf liquor at the bar. Does this hit close to home?
Be aware that it is very possible for men to become addicted to spending money, and this happens when they get a rush from buying something new. Some men get into the habit of buying new items regularly, and they get an endorphin rush each time that a new item is purchased. After getting this endorphin rush enough times it can be possible to become addicted. This is when things become dangerous and destructive, and it’s the type of situation you want to avoid getting yourself into in the first place. Below are a few tactics you can employ to safeguard yourself from unnecessarily emptying your wallet.

Stop Spending Money Indiscriminately

If you think you could be an emotional spender you should try to stop yourself from buying something the next time you are at a store. As soon as you are about to buy, sit back a minute and think about if it is something that you really need. Just thinking about it for a second is often enough to make you second guess your expense. If a simple break isn’t enough, you should go home without the item and take some time to think about it. It’s easier to avoid an emotional expenditure after you are away from it, and you may later realize that buying this item would have been a complete waste of money.

Get an Accountability Partner

Many times simply knowing that you have a problem is not enough to help you avoid it. Instead, you need to bring other people into the equation who can provide support to fix the problem.

Take some time and find a person to talk to that will help you be accountable or the money that you spend. This could be a spouse, a relative, or a friend. This person will be someone that you call before you make any purchases. If you feel bad about calling them, you most likely should not purchase the item in question. If you are not sure, they will be able to help you determine if you are making a good spending decision or not.

Many guys avoid spending the money because they don’t want to tell their accountability partner about it. Others change their minds about making the purchase after speaking with their partner about it for a few minutes. Just having someone there to talk to can be a huge help.

Spending money is not the only thing you have to talk about with this partner. Discuss moments when you are suffering from stress or depression as well. If you are an emotional spender, your spending habits are tied into your emotions. This means that when you aren’t feeling good, you may try to compensate by spending money.

Budget Large Purchases & Implement Patience

Too many men make emotionally-based decisions when purchasing items like homes or vehicles, and as a result, end up spending much more than they needed to. Impatience and lack of planning are common reasons why houses end up being seized and cars make their owners perpetually broke. For men who are emotional spenders, it would be a great idea to develop some sort of budget before you even arrive at the dealership or talking to a realtor. This will automatically help you figure out a number that you can, and are willing, to spend on a new vehicle. You can use Auto Credit Express’ loan calculator to determine the right monthly car payment that will fit your budget, and the Bank Rate home budget calculator will help you to account for all those erroneous fees that add up when purchasing a home. Additionally, don’t be afraid to negotiate, and always shop around for the best deal rather than accept the first number that you’re presented with.

Give Yourself a Little Leeway

Many men will stop indulging when they realize they are emotionally addicted to shopping. This leads to frustration and, in many instances, binge spending. To avoid buying expensive items impulsively, you should give yourself a small spending budget that you can use for whatever you want. Put away five or ten percent of your earnings to spend at the store and you shouldn’t have any more impulse buys that go over budget.

Emotional spending is a serious problem for many men, but that doesn’t mean that it has to rule your life. Consider your spending habits. If you think you have a problem, do something about it. There are plenty of steps you can take to get away from your unnecessary spending, and you just might realize that you are happier without it.

Keeping your emotions in check can be a difficult thing to do but with some practice you can become a master of your emotions.  One useful method to stay on track and achieve your goals is to consult with a financial adviser that can help tailoring a budget that suits your needs and wants, as well as making the most of your financial resources for both immediate and long-term enjoyment.

Book an appointment with our certified financial planner John Duncan today by ringing us on 07 3169 2570 or send an email to admin@truefinancial.com.au and we will get in contact with you today.

Filed Under: General

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Director for True Financial - John Duncan - Fee Only financial planner To receive the best financial planning advice you need the best financial planner. John Duncan is certainly in that category. John is a financial planner who is unique in not only his high level of knowledge and experience in financial planning but also in the amount of areas that John advises in. A Financial Planner with a strong Education background John is a Certified … Read More

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